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The WDA HSG Discussion Paper Serieson Demographic IssuesWDA ForumA Truly Impossible Equation: The Future of Welfare States in Times of Demographic Ageingby Marc Trippel, Dmitry Kulikov, Zlatil Davidov amp; Hans Groth No. 2011/10A Truly Impossible Equation: The Future of Welfare States in Times of Demographic Ageingby Marc Trippel, Dmitry Kulikov, Zlatil Davidov amp; Hans GrothThe WDA-HSG Discussion Paper Series on Demographic IssuesNo. 2011/10MANAGING EDITORS:Monika B TLER Professor, University of St.Gallen, SwitzerlandIlona KICKBUSCH Professor, The Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, SwitzerlandAlfonso SOUSA-POZA Secretary, WDA Forum Foundation, Switzerland Professor, University of Hohenheim-Stuttgart, GermanyADVISORY BOARD OF THE WDA FORUM:Isabella ABODERIN Senior Research Fellow, Oxford Institute of Ageing, University of Oxford, UKJane BARRATT Secretary General, International Federation on Ageing (IFA), CanadaJohn BEARD Director, Department of Ageing and Life Course, WHO, Geneva (observer status)Marcel F. BISCHOF Founder of WDA, SpainRichard BLEWITT CEO, HelpAge International, UKDavid E. BLOOM Clarence James Gamble Professor of Economics and Demography, Harvard University, USAXiao CAIWEI Assistant President, China National Committee on Ageing (CNCA), ChinaJoseph COUGHLIN Professor and Director AgeLab, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), USASarah HARPER Director of the Oxford Institute of Ageing, UKWerner HAUG Director, Technical Division, United Nations Population Fund, New YorkDalmer HOSKINS Director, Office of Policy Development and Liaison for Public Trustees, US Social Security Administration, USAAlexandre KALACHE Head, International Centre for Policies on Ageing, Rio de Janeiro, BrazilNabil M. KRONFOL Co-Founder, Center for Studies on Aging in Lebanon, LebanonAriela LOWENSTEIN Head, Center for Research amp; Study of Aging, University of Haifa, IsraelJean-Pierre MICHEL Professor and Director, Department of Geriatrics of the University Hospitals of Geneva, SwitzerlandDesmond O NEILL President of the European Union Geriatric Medicine Society, IrelandHubert STERLE Professor for Information Management, University of St.Gallen, SwitzerlandUrsula M. STAUDINGER Professor and President, German Psychological Society, Vice President Jacobs University Bremen, GermanyMain partners of the WDA Forum are:Merck amp; Co., Inc.PfizerSDC Swiss Agency for Cooperation and DevelopmentUniversity of St.GallenThis discussion paper series is kindly supported by the Ecoscientia Foundation.The opinions expressed in this article do not necessarily represent those of WDA Forum. Hochschule f r Wirtschafts-, Rechts- und Sozialwissenschaften (HSG) A Truly Impossible Equation: The Future of Welfare States in Times of Demographic Ageing The impact of demographic shifts on public debts in Europe, the US, and Japan: Current situation and evolution until 2030 Demography as a stress factor for public budgets Public indebtedness scenario analyses Three proposals for sustainable fiscal development Authors Marc Trippel, Dmitry Kulikov, Zlatil Davidov Masters(户籍所在地怎么填写？户籍所在地是指我国居民户口簿登记所在地，一般是指出生时其父母户口登记地方。按照户口登记管理条例，公民填写户籍所在地，应该填写到户籍管理机关所在地，即城市户口的应该填**省**市(县)**区;农村户口的应该填**省**县**乡。一般在填写户籍所在地时，只填写到县就可以了。)tudents Banking amp; Finance, University of St. Gallen (HSG) Dr. med. Hans Groth, MBA Chairman of the Board, World Demographic amp; Ageing Forum (WDA Forum) Permanent Lecturer on Demography and Economic Evolution, University of St. Gallen November 2011 University of St. Gallen WDA Forum ii Table of Contents 1 Executive Summary ............................................................................................................. iii 2 Good-Bye Pyramids Governance of Social Welfare States has to be Reengineered .......................................... iv 3 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 1 4 Status quo 2010 ....................................................................................................... 3 4.1 Demographic Transformation .................................................................................. 3 4.2 Demography as Stress Indicator on Government Budgets ................................... 4 4.3 The European Union ................................................................................................. 7 4.4 United States .......................................................................................................... 10 4.5 Japan ....................................................................................................................... 12 5 Forecast 2030 ........................................................................................................ 16 5.1 Methodology and Data ........................................................................................... 16 5.2 Results ..................................................................................................................... 17 5.3 Deficit Control Back to 2007 Levels ..................................................................... 18 6 Measurements and Policy Actions ............................................................................ 19 6.1 Financial Market Solution ....................................................................................... 19 6.2 Policy approach....................................................................................................... 20 6.3 Civil social approach ............................................................................................... 21 7 Conclusion ............................................................................................................... 22 Table of Figures ........................................................................................................................... 23 Bibliography ................................................................................................................................ 24 Online sources and data bases .................................................................................................... 25 Annex .......................................................................................................................................... 28 iii 1 Executive Summary The financial crisis that started in mid-2008 continues to disrupt the Euro-zone as well as other OECD countries and has lead to an increasingly uncontrolled expansion of public debt. Additionally, the threatening bankruptcy of entire states is currently widely discussed. Governments were forced to increase their gross governmental debt dramatically in order to recapitalize banks. Also, they needed to introduce large stimulus programmes to revive demand. These actions were indispensable in order to ensure the success of the fragile global economic recovery. This, according to the OECD, lead to the drastic increase of the industrialized countries' average rate of indebtedness during 2007-2010 an increase of 25% in terms of gross government debt relative to gross domestic productivity (Debt-to-GDP). Consequently, the bankruptcy of Greece seems only a matter of time while the budgetary situation for Spain, Portugal and Italy as well as Belgium and France turns out to be critical. Throughout history, there have always been periods of high public indebtedness for industrialized countries. An example is the period after World War II with debt levels of 121% for the United States and 300% for Great Britain. The current situation is different however, due to the unfolding demographic shifts and the resulting unprecedented consequences. The demographic developments for Western Europe, the United States and Japan forecast stagnating or shrinking workforces and fast growing retirement populations. This goes hand in hand with exploding social spending commitments and lower economic growth rates all in all a truly impossible equation . The topic of this paper is to analyze the impact of demographic change, and ageing in particular, on public debt levels for the European Union, the United States and Japan until 2030. An extensive status-quo analysis has been conducted followed by projections for the next 20 years. A Demographic Stress Indicator on Governments Budgets has been developed in order to measure the demographic burden on public debt. Finally, three different frameworks are suggested which all aim at fighting high and non-sustainable debt levels. They are either on the financial market-, on the policy- or on the civil society level. ageing bonds to immediately escape from the debt-trap and bankruptcy a balanced shift towards more private financing of health care and retirement schemes and increasing self-responsibility a complementary currency to reduce the financing stress associated with ageing Immediate actions are needed and unpleasant trade-offs have to be made! As the current global fragility shows, the last decades developments in terms of missing financial sustainability poses a serious threat to national and personal welfare as well as social stability of societies. Especially in the context of the structural changes in our society due to ageing, the proposed approaches open discussions to rethink future sustainable financing of our social systems. iv 2 Good-Bye Pyramids Governance of Social Welfare States has to be Reengineered Throughout the creation of this chapter the Western nations, and in particular the EU, the US and Japan have entered an unprecedented phase of fiscal and economic uncertainty a phase for which they are surprisingly little prepared, demonstrating no solid plan of action. At first glance this uncertainty is driven by growing instability originating in the financial markets themselves due to endogenous weaknesses of their governance structures. However, at a closer look it turns out that the fundamental source of this growing skepticism is located somewhere else: Governments and their policies represent the true epicenter. They are no longer capable to manage their national budgets in a way that is sustainable both from the fiscal perspective and from the perspective of their voters. In the past...

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